The whole world is pondering how Donald Trump works. His unwaveringly enthusiastic supporters feel he is staying true to his program, which in itself is quite original; faced with post-campaign reality, leaders tend to water down their previous promises and aim for a consensus.
We should therefore expect Trump to stay in campaign mode, instead of trying to build bridges with his opponents. While far from becoming the president of all Americans, he may well remain the leader of the minority that elected him. This strategy of division and animosity matches perfectly with Trump’s behavior and speeches; he sees the world in black and white, with him or against him. By making such radical decisions, he has forced his staff and the country’s citizens to choose a side: either with him, the good, or against him, the bad. It is classic for leaders of authoritarian regimes to compromise their partisans in this way, in order to ensure their loyalty and make any dissidence impossible. If our hypothesis is true, Trump will gradually find himself increasingly at odds with a world that is neither black nor white, but gray.
American society and the vast world beyond it can only function through arrangements, compromises and constant negotiations. In the real world, the Trump method will likely lead to violence and chaos — both of which are already being witnessed at the United States borders, and even sooner than expected. Trump could come back to reality, which would not stop him from applying a more moderate version of his program. But he may also continue in his current virtual world. In this case, judges, Congress, businesses, protestors and any citizen able to speak out will soon prevent him from continuing his mandate. The highly-mediatized protests over the last few weekends offer ample proof for this scenario.
In just two weeks, Trump has become the most unpopular president in American history. It is already a foregone conclusion that 2017 will see weaker economic growth than in 2016, as terrified businesses stop investing in the United States. And no amount of tweeting can roll back this principle of reality.
Nb. I hope I am wrong.