Modern heads of government are judged on the economic results of their time in office. However, this is a paradox. Our economies are open and connected to the world, and governments have little way of influencing growth rates.
By definition, growth is dictated by global cycles which in turn are mainly determined by technical innovations. Governments can therefore hamper it by introducing restrictive rules or excessively increasing their deficits. But no one actually knows how to stimulate growth. The most important factor is luck, and our two presidents seem to share this characteristic.
We are at the start of a global growth cycle that began before Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron were elected, but they are the ones reaping the rewards. Of course, it is claimed the measures announced by the two leaders have accelerated the growth cycle. But this is doubtful, because it takes years to observe the real effects of any decision. Time moves quickly in politics, but is far slower in economics. What’s more, the two rarely coincide.
There is another[...]